Sports Betting Guide
Betting strategy - how to gain an edge over the bookmaker?
Betting is relatively easy at first sight. It's enough to predict the outcome and wait for the payout. Well, this is only in theory. You are going to get a whole different picture when you actually start doing it.
It appears that profit-making tipsters amount for a tiny share of all punters. Why is that? Why the majority of bettors, are not able to keep up with a pace even after a promising start, and sooner or later end up zeroing their balance? How to gain an edge over the bookmaker? You will find answers to these and many other related questions in our betting strategy guide.
Betting margin over everything!
In reality, professional tipsters work out a yield of about 5-6%, which is a good number, to start with. Only few are able to reach the 10% mark, and you really have to be perfect to top that. We wish you nothing but best so, please, do not get it twisted. We do not say that you are not going to become one of those top-tier bettors. We also try to get there, step-by-step, just like you. Nevertheless, we would like to suggest you rather focus on solidifying that 5% yield first and only then aim for a higher price.
Those who are unfamiliar with what yield is can check out a more detailed explanation here. A 5% yield means exactly what it stands for, a particular level of profit that you have made over a certain period of time. Let's assume you have invested €10,000 in betting, in May alone. This would mean that you made €500 netto. Seems alright, doesn't it?
Let's take a look at another scenario. What do you think is going to happen when you would place the exact same bets with the exact same stake at the bookmaker that is offering slightly shorter odds? Any guesses? Let's say the difference is about 3%. It does not seem like a big deal, right?
What would you say if someone tells you, that such a tiny difference, assuming everything else stayed the same, is going to bring down the aforementioned €500 monthly profit to barely €200? Do you still think it is not worth spending an extra hour or two and register an account at a couple of leading online betting operators to be able to shop for the best odds on the market?
The above example shows you that you could've given up about €300 in just one month. Bring it up to the annual scale, and you are already down by €3,600. What about a 5-year run? In that case, your total losses would be €18,000, which is enough to buy a new car! Once again, do you still think that such a tiny change does not make a difference?
«If it ain't broke, don't fix it»
We hope it is now clear that betting margin gives online bookmakers an edge over punters. Is there a way to overcome it, though? The answer is yes, we can balance it out & minimise our losses with just a bit of effort. So how can we gain an edge over a bookie? Do bookmakers have any weak spots? Of course, they do. Your task here is only to learn them, so you can start taking advantage of them, as soon as possible.
Champions League, NBA, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Wimbledon, Olympics, F1, US Open, Bundesliga, World Cup, the list of popular sporting events can go on and on, however, We do not advise you betting on such top markets, for the variety of reasons. Of course, there are lots of professional punters who mainly focus on the Champions League. They do make profits, small but still profits. Due to the complexity and the higher risk factor of these markets, we would like to offer you something completely different, however, not inferior.
The vast majority of top online bookmakers goes the distance to be ahead of the competition in every possible way aspect. That is why you see all these generous welcome offers, competitive prices and endless lists of betting markets available to you. That is all awesome, however, bring along high risks. Why would you ask? Well, since bookmakers can afford to hire a team of professional oddsmakers, who can almost perfectly assess the risk and calculate the probability, you can be sure that looking for value in the most popular markets would simply be a waste of time. Now, think about the number of markets these bookmaking firms are offering your daily. In order to cover all of them properly, bookmakers would have to hire an army of statisticians, resulting in an endless payroll.
That is exactly why the odds for less popular events and competitions are not that much precise and rather set somewhat by default. Bookies allow bettors to verify such markets themselves and accept some minor losses. This is the moment when we play our part!
Bookmakers struggle to embrace semi-pro football leagues in Australia, Czech Republic or Ireland. Why? The answer is simple! There are just too many of those. However, nothing stops us from focusing on two or three of them and become experts. What do we get from it? More than you can imagine! Check this out.
We are already in a better position to place a winning bet just by being familiar with the teams. Moreover, or maybe even, first of all, knowing the market allows you to skip the waiting and become the market yourself. What do we mean by that? You basically don't have to wait for the market to get verified, but just look at the opening odds and see whether they represent the true market value or a bookmaker's mistake.
How big of a mistake are we talking about here? According to our personal experience, we can say quite big ones. There are cases where bookmakers automatically set a 3.5 Asian goal line, which is getting moved to 4.25 after just a couple of minutes, offering us a clear surebet.
Don't be afraid of special bets
The situation with special markets looks quite similar to the one with the exotic ones - bookies do not have much knowledge about them. Most sportsbooks offer such markets just to be in tune with the competition. Nevertheless, it doesn't mean they have more knowledge about the event or that they will always respond to the changes on time. Well, despite having such similarities with traditional betting markets, specials behave in a little different manner.
Of course, nobody can be 100% sure about the outcome even in situations where the number-one-seeded team in the league meets the one from the very bottom of the league's standings. Anything is possible until the final whistle. In case of special bets, rumours, guesses, leaked information and other things of this nature come into play. Bookmakers use them to define which option is more likely to occur than the other one.
The most common special market is the Oscars. The winner is never known until the very last moment, but everyone still guesses who that would be. The same scenario persists in other award nominations and votings like Emmy, Grammy, Golden Raspberry Awards, Noble Prize, Time Person of the Year, Ballon d'Or and others. It usually seems like nobody supposed to know what's going to happen. Well, how many times have you seen nominees who ended up not getting an award being absent during the ceremony and the ones who get one sitting in the front rows with a well-prepared speech?
Completely the same can be observed in political markets, as well. An experienced punter will certainly see the whole thing through and know which party will have more votes in the upcoming elections.
Collect as much information as possible
Someone who's good at everything is excellent at nothing! According to this saying, please, do not try to bet on every available market out there. Just focus on a couple that you like and/or have knowledge about and keep mastering them.
Unfortunately, you won't find the needed information on the most popular websites or forums. Instead, you would have to dig a bit deeper. The best source of the first-hand information will be specialised betting services, where punters share their tips, guesses and knowledge. However, in the case of such web-portals, it is hard to check the credibility of the source. This happens because lots of bettors only think they are good and have some idea about betting. Such bettors would do everything to get their shining moment, sometimes making completely odd calls about the playing teams or players.
Our experience tells us the following, it is much better to check such information on social media. For example, Twitter, where you get the real stuff but not those #TacoTuesday posts. Twitter is all about the news!
Who will play? Who won't? Who's injured? Who's sitting out? Who must be careful with fouling before an important match? Which player was partying the whole night before the game? Who has some love affairs with a celebrity? We can go on forever with these. Hopefully, we don't have to tell you about how much every single one of those can actually affect the match or a player.
What is more, Twitter and Facebook are fastest-reacting social media platforms. You can find lots of useful information about the upcoming matches, rosters, coaching staff, etc. We are not talking right now just about those semi-pro leagues in Australia. You can also apply the same approach to find more information about the upcoming Champions League matches right before the kickoff.