Sports Betting Guide
How to successfully analyse football matches?
The key to placing a winning bet at your online bookmaker is an effective analysis of the match you are interested in. Even punters who do not have lots of knowledge about football can become successful. A bit of free time, dedication, hard work, analytical skills, calmness & ability to find information on the Internet - is all you need.
Analysing the sporting event effectively is not that much of a difficult task, as it might seem at first. Thus, spending several minutes before placing a bet, in order to learn as much information as possible about it should become your everyday routine. If you would like to learn more about how to beat a bookie, how to predict match outcomes properly & how to place winning bets, please visit our sports betting guide section by pressing here.
Principles of effective match analysis
- Working order.
First of all, you have to learn the proper order of analysing the match. The majority of punters usually select the event first and only after that run (or not) a quick analysis. We believe this is a huge mistake. Why? Well, simply because you never know in advance that you will find value in the particular match. Therefore, if you would like to become more efficient with your betting, please try to implement our advice into your betting routine. Instead of choosing the event and only then analysing it, try to do a research on a couple of matches/events at once, and only then choose one or two, which have the most value potential, to bet on.
- Number of matches.
We all know this type of punters who place around 20 bets at the bookmaker during the weekend or even a single afternoon. The world's best punters also place around the same number of bets (15-30), but… per month. Let this serve you as an example. Online sports betting does not like rushing and is nothing like a competition where you have to place more bets than everybody else. Regularity, efficiency and effectiveness are what matters the most! We are simply not going to be able to go through a thorough analysis of several dozens of matches daily, moreover effectively bet on such a number of events. Therefore, you should rather concentrate on quality, not quantity. You should in no way force betting on anything! There are days or even periods of a year when it is much harder to find value for various reasons that are beyond our control. When such a situation occurs, you must take a break. You also have to watch out for the weekends, as they bring the most threat to your bankroll. The huge number of weekend matches biases punters to think that there are more opportunities to find value. While it is logical that more matches offer more opportunities, the reality is far from what punters want it to be. Once again, we would like to draw your attention to one simple but a vital thing - «quality not quantity»!
- Narrow your focus.
It is pretty hard to be an expert in every league and/or competition, therefore, it would be smart to concentrate on one, two or maximum three leagues, where you have the most knowledge and feel the most comfortable & confident. By sticking to this approach, you will soon develop a much better understanding and knowledge of the game, which will help you easily see strong & week sides and predict the outcomes more efficiently.
If you're still not aware of, football is all about statistics. What is more, this should be your main source of knowledge. Thanks to the nowadays technology, you can find virtually anything you want to know about the particular event on the Internet. Therefore, you should not just stick to checking the scored and conceded goals. Try expanding your search, start digging deeper, check when teams score goals, when do they concede, how many shots they take, what is their playing style throughout the match, how many fouls do they commit, how many corners to they take, what is their ball possession percentage and so on. The more information you know, the easier it will be for you to place a bet.
The history of matches is a very important element of the pre-match analysis. The matches between the same opponents look rather more similar, especially in the long run. Therefore, sometimes it is enough to catch just one unique feature, which will instantly put you ahead of the bookmaker. This can be anything from the number of goals, cards, fouls & corners to playing style and strategy. Basically, anything that can help you gain that edge over your online bookmaker and place a winning bet.
Another crucial aspect of the pre-match betting & analysis. You must always check what is going on with the playing teams' rosters and their lineups for the particular match. Try to find out whether or not the star players will be featured, who the manager decides to rest and whether or not youngers will start the game instead of more experienced veteran players. Trust us, this information will make a difference for you.
- Schedule & fixtures.
It is entirely your responsibility to know against who & how many matches the teams you're looking to back have already played, what were the results and, most importantly, what fixtures are comping up next. Load management has become a huge issue in modern sports (especially football & basketball), therefore, keeping track of the players' form & condition can give you a better insight of the event. Try to pay close attention before important matches. European or national cup runners-ups with great potential are usually resting their key players before the important matchup. This can highly affect teams' overall performance, therefore, giving you a chance to find some value.
- Team chemistry & relationship.
The relationship between the coaching staff, management and players highly affects the atmosphere inside the locker room. What is more, it also directly affects (positively, as well as negatively) the team's chemistry, resulting in a lack of motivation, dedication and competitiveness. If there is no understanding between the manager and the players, nothing would be able to hold even a billion-dollar roster together. Punters who tightly follow their favourite teams are well aware of such issues. However, if you are not, a good ol' Internet search will come in handy. All you need is a couple of sports websites or forums or even social media platforms like Twitter or Facebook.
- Match officials.
Unfortunately or not, referees are another (quite essential) part of the game. Moreover, they quite often steal the spotlight of the match with their officiating. The match outcomes are usually tightly dependant on their decisions, therefore, you have to know which referee is going to officiate the game, as well as, his/her habits when it comes to showing the card or whatsoever. This should not take too much of your time, since the number of referees is not that huge, especially if you stick to just a couple of minor leagues/competitions, as it was mentioned above.
- Match importance.
Another aspect worth your attention. It is obvious that the more important the match is, the more prepared both teams are, and the more competitive the game will be. However, there are less important matches, for instance, the end of the season, when teams have already secured their desired position, which was set at the beginning of the campaign. Such matches rarely provide a competitive environment, however, there are some exceptions.
There are also cases, where one team is trying to qualify for the European competition or get out of the relegation zone, while their opponents just want to finish their season in peace. Such situations usually have a high chance of being corrupted. For a more detailed explanation about the corruption in football, please check out this sports betting guide. Such matches require more cautiousness, therefore, if you do not have any additional information about the match, we suggest rather staying away from it.
- Do not look at the odds.
Try to analyse a match and all of its possible outcomes without looking at the odds. Punters are often getting biased by the odds offered by the online bookmakers. Always try to assess the likelihood of a particular scenario and find its true value. Find the real odds by yourself and only after that compare them to the ones offered by the bookmaker. This approach will help you easily reveal the bookmaker's mistake and, as a result, provide you with some value.
- Social media.
Social media platforms are a great source of information that is quite often coming from the first hand, telling us more than any press conferences could ever do. The majority of football players are everyday social media users with highly popular accounts. They quite often make posts revealing certain inside information that can provide punters with great insight. Another great part of social media networks is that official football clubs' accounts on, for example, Twitter and Facebook usually post official lineups several minutes before the kickoff. This is also very useful if you are looking to place a pre-match wager.
- Odds movement.
Proper monitoring & odds analysis is one of the hardest and most advanced things in sports betting. It is quite time consuming and requires lots of discipline & patience. However, in order to become a great punter, you have to try it at least. The best punters are constantly monitoring bookmakers, betting exchanges and their prices. This helps them to be the first to respond to unusual odds fluctuations, which potentially carries lots of value. While we emphasise the importance of all the above points, the odds movement provides a substantially bigger reward if mastered and utilised properly. We are, in no way, trying to say that giving up on everything else and just sticking to odds monitoring is the best way to become successful in sports betting. Odds monitoring requires a large share of knowledge and analytical skills, the lack of which can severely damage your budget and betting overall.
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