Sports Betting Guide
Once upon a time or tipster's story (part 3)
Please, welcome Kosmo365, one of the best European tipsters in the last decade (nickname was changed due to obvious reasons). Exclusively for us, he agreed to share his road to success story.
In the first two parts of the interview, which you can find here & here our tipster answered some questions regarding the early days of his betting career and common mistakes he made while being a newbie.
- What do you like to bet the most on?
- Are you asking about the sport or the type of bet?
- I believe that around 85% of all my bets are on football. I've been following this sport since I was a kid and therefore I have quite some knowledge about it. I have my favourite leagues and kind of can tell what part of the season is better for betting & etc.
- Do you mind sharing some knowledge with our readers?
- Man, I don't know… I'll tell you this. Just leave the World Cup and all the finals of European leagues' Cups alone. Try to stay away from the first weeks' matches of European leagues, but on the other hand, I can't remember anything bad about betting on the last ones. The only thing you have to do is stay focused and double check everything.
- Could you elaborate? You know better, there are plenty of accounts, blogs and websites with so-called "tipsters", who give their betting props left & right. They always know that every other match is set and they are the only ones to have some insides. So what do you mean by double checking? How do you separate the real from the fake & the fake from the real?
- Good that you reminded me about this. In the case of various blogs and accounts, you have to look at such tipsters' history. If the guy just barely created his account and has a success rate around 5% then his words are worth nothing. Of course, he might have some knowledge, and all but personally, I'm trying to avoid such people. Usually, these tipsters do not "live" long. After a month or two, they deactivate their accounts and create new ones. I know people who have started their 15th account and are not about to stop there. As for me, tipster, who can be trusted has to have at least a year-long history with the more or less reasonable winning rate. Everybody thinks that betting is about the continuous slip winning when, in reality, it's about something completely different.
- I've been trying a new tactic, that I took from Italian catenaccio lately. Yes, you heard, right! Some years ago, Italians came up with an amazing thing in attempts to defend their goal. Their philosophy was fascinating - you can't lose if nobody scores on you. Add to this a bit of luck, and here you go with a goal for yourself. I tried to apply it to my betting style. I try to find the low-risk type of bets, even though the possible win amount goes down as well.
- For example?
- For example, Over 1 before the half. You bet on at least one goal in the first half, having a chance to get a void. Every consecutive goal in the first 45 minutes means a win.
- Okay, have you had any success?
- To be honest, I can say that I'm pleasantly surprised. I rarely lose when betting on such selections. The amount of voids is high, but at the end of the day, the system works perfectly for me.
- What's your void and win counts? And… what do you mean by "such selections"?
- What do I mean? I mean, I bet on matches where I am confident that I'm not going to lose! This is the betting fundamentals right here. Let me break it down for you one more time. Unlike most of the tipsters, I do not care about the possibility of winning but about the minimization of losing. This way I end up with around 10% losing, 30% winning and 60% of voided slips. One out of ten seems solid, right?
- What about the games? How do you know when to expect the goal?
- This is never 100% certain. However, after being in the game for so many years, I have leagues and teams that rarely fail betting on. Of course, I can't tell you what they are, but because I'm such a nice person, I'll give you some hints. I always look for matchups between more or less equally good teams. Based on my personal experience, I can say that there are more goals in such matches compared to the ones against outsiders. I would suggest staying away from the last ones!
- What do you mean?
- Something like Real - Girona, Juventus - Spal, something like that. I quit betting on those a long time ago. Finding value in such events is really hard even in case of opening odds. The only way to bet on these events would be positive handicaps against the favourites. I can't say I've ever even heard about this type of bets, so I'd rather say less.
- What is that you don't like about the mentioned type of matches? I don't know if you're aware of this or not, but the only reason I ask you this is that 90% of people who will read this are continually betting on them.
- Which is good for me, because of things like this bookies are still in the business (ha-ha-ha). Of course, it's a joke but people, come on, you are not going to win a lot betting on Real's, Barcelona's or Galatasaray's victory. Let's imagine that Gala plays against the worst team in the league. The decent odds for this match would be an Asian handicap like AH (-2.5). Very often happens that the favourites only get a 1:0 win, controlling the flow of the game the whole time. I can't stand such matches and never bet on them. Coming back to online blogs and websites. Most of the betting hints, fixes & etc. are really random. Remember that when some kid posts on his profile that team A will 1000% get a win because the 8 key player, the coach and the bus driver from team B have a running nose, it will get reposted on many other profiles immediately. On the first sight, this seems to look like decent info, but that's only on the first sight. Nobody ever checks the information because how can you pass out on such a certain bet?! That is why I use my own services but not the popular one. Yeah, I do check them as well but never use their props. If you ask me what I think about the most popular services, I'd say that they are brilliant. Brilliant in the way that they can tell the tipster if he's good or not without losing tons of money. I do really suggest all the young guys who want to explore this field to give it a try and find out if that is something you have to stay away from or not.
- Something tells me that there were no such things back when you started?
- Do you mean the possibility to check whether the tipster is good or not?
- Exactly! From the very beginning, I was a self-taught tipster, who was learning on his own mistakes. The fact that I am standing where I am right now has a lot to do with hard work, dedication and a large share of luck. I am really grateful that God helped me to get out of the situation that I was in before it was too late!
Stay tuned for part 4