Will Clockwork Orange win against Mexico?

author: Betin submitted: 25 June 2014

Vice champion of the world against “black horses” of the World Cup. Which team will be better?

Very interesting and at the same time not easy to tip match. Two different teams. From one side Holland with Van Persie and Robben who make the difference (they score a lot of goals while playing sophisticated football), Mexico without football stars but with good play not only in defense – on the other. In group matches Holland scored a set of point defeating Spain 5:1 and winning against Australia 3:2 and against Chile 2:0. The hardest part for the Orange without a doubt was the second match against Australia, which, despite the victory went very hard and certainly from the course of the game a draw would be a good result. Mexico in every game he played very well. Against Cameroon 1-0 score was a bit misleading because Mexico scored two more goals correct, the judge did not consider. Good game against Brazil although Mexicans made many errors which could have cost them the loss of valuable tie, while full of stars Croatia played a very good match which shows that good form is no accident.

Bookmakers also saw a good game of Mexicans by which courses are no longer too high. Mexico’s victory 3,80, draw 3,50, Holland’s victory 2,10. Before the championship I would play such odds on Holland blindly, as of now I still think that Holland thanks to its experience and individualities is a front runner of this match, I fear a surprise though. Mexico is strengthened mentally especially after draw against Brazil may play even better. The question what the weather will be like this day arises? I too hot it will decrease the chance of European team.

Group Stage Stats	Holland	Mexico
Matches played	3	3
Wins	3	2
Draws	0	1
Losses	0	0
Goals for	10	4
Goals against	3	1
Scores	9	7
Avg.goals scored p/m	3,33	1,33
Avg.goals conceded p/m	1	0,33
Avg.ball possession time p/m	43,67%	50%
Avg.corners number p/m	1,67	4,67
Avg.fouls number p/m	10,67	11,67
Avg.yellow cards number p/m	1,67	1,67

Even though Holland scored as much as 10 goals in group matches in this match I would play under 2,5 (odds 1,66). I expect a match similar to the one of Mexico and Brazil where the outcome was 0:0, here one goal can decide about the final result. To the average of scored goals in case of Holland (3,33 per match) I would not pay much attention. Such high average is mainly the win against Spain 5:1 which definitely was something unique.

Statistics show that Holland attacks rather from right side (where is Robben) and everyone knows that Dutchman has practically one deke towards the middle of the field that is why a chance of a corner decreases. Foregoing average of the Dutch is just 1,67 of a corner throw per match. In my opinion it is worth to bet under 9,5 corner throw in the whole match or under 5 for Holland only.

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