Which team will win the FIFA World Cup 2014?

I took into account 10 national teams which according to bookmakers have the best chances to become a champion.

Odds bookmakers:

• Brazil 4,00
• Argentina 5,50
• Germany 6,50
• Spain 7,50
• Belgium 19,00
• France 23,00
• Italy 26,00
• Uruguay 29,00
• England 29,00
• Portugal 29,00
• Netherlands 34,00

From 19 tournaments played, 8 national teams won titles.

• Brazil - 5 times, Italy - 4 times, Germany - 3 times, Uruguay - 2 times, Argentina - 2 times, England , France and Spain one time.

From 19 tournaments played, 6 were won by the home team which was a front runner to win trophy. If we “subtract” countries which were organisers but did not have much chance to win (Switzerland, Sweden, Chile, 2xMaxico, USA, South Africa, South Korea and Japan) - there were 8 of them, it means that out of 11 World Cups - 6 were won by the hosts! Moreover only once European team won outside its own continent (South Africa - Spain won) it makes chances of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay statistically much higher than the odds state. In such case will we have two teams from South America in the final? The World Cup 1950 in Brazil was won by Uruguay (2:1 against the home team).

In my opinion a bet for Brazil’s national with the odds 3,90 is justified not only by the statistics but also but the potential presented by the team. We had a foretaste of Championships a year ago when the home team won Confederations Cup defeating first Italy, one of the front runners 4:2 to win 3:0 against Spain in the finals. Than, Canarinhos won at a very high level and now it will be even better. Fantastic coach, Luiz Felipe Scolari - is a guarantee of a play at a very high level.

Which national team may endanger Canarinhos?

Surely, great potential has Argentina’s national team.  Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria, Gonzali Higuain, Pablo Zabaleta or Ezequiel Lavezzi is a squad better then the home team especially in attack. I don’t know if a coach Alejandro Sabella will be able to prepare a team to fight for championship. Argentina’s national won preliminary to Fifa World Cup in South America (9 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats) still they lost too many points when considering the fact that Brazil did not take part in it.

Among front runners I was putting Urugway which 4 years ago in the Republic of South Africa showed that it is menacing and others should take him into consideration. Now Suarez whose injured may not be able to play during the championship, but even though he would he will not be in his best shape. Without him a team loses 50% of quality of their game and final success will be very hard to achieve. I agree with bookmakers and the odds 29,00 even though the team will probably feel at home.

Two German teams are according to bookmakers on 3rd and 4th place (odds at 6,50) and current world and European champions - Spain. In my opinion Spain, which currently note higher successes not only on international area as a national team but as well in Champions League or European League. Moreover, Brazil’s climate is closer to Spain. In the Championship would take place in Europe, the front runner for me would have been a team from Germany.

Out of the rest of teams  threatening can be the Belgium team which currently have some of the best players in Europe. Kompany and Van Buyten in defence, in addition Dembele, Witsel or Defour, Harazd, Lukaku and Mertens in attack - are stars that can create some confusion. In my opinion they will not win but are able to be in the final “four”.

The question is how will France, England, vice-champion Holland or Portugal play? Each of these teams has a great potential in them and it is not said that it will be activated during the championship. Not many people four years ago was betting on “Oranje”and we all have seen how it turned up. Extra-time settled the championship for Spain. I do not bet on teams from Europe besides Spain and I give them less chances on the hot South African team. My front runner is Brazil, right behind Argentina and Spain.

In my opinion the most probable line-up of championships:

• Brazil : Spain - odds at 13.00
• Brazil : Argentina - odds at 11.00