Awesome Colombia or not as good Uruguay?

author: Betin submitted: 25 June 2014

Two national teams from South America who now each other from head to toes. Which of them will be celebrating an advance?

If Colombia does not win this match I will be very surprised. This national plays practically best football game at the World Cup. Three wins in a group (broke Japan 4:1, defensively oriented Greece which very rarely loses any goal, and now lost 3:0 and wins against Ivory Coast 2:1) and three very good matches. The fact is that maybe it was not the strongest group however the results are impressive.

Uruguay has disappointed me despite the advance especially because of the match against Costa Rica although they did not play well against Italy as well. Besides, it is probable that Luiz Suarez will not play in this match. In my opinion he should not avoid punishment for biting Chiellini. He should be disqualified for it, however if it happens Uruguay loses practically all its strength in attack. Edison Cavani or Diego Forlan play poorly and one should not expect a breakthrough. Bookmakers has set the following odds: Colombia’s win at 2,05, draw at 3,50 Uruguay’s win at 4,00. I will bet on Colombia with a stake of 3/10.

Group Stage Stats	Colombia	Uruguay
Matches played	3	3
Wins	3	2
Draws	0	0
Losses	0	1
Goals for	9	4
Goals against	2	4
Scores	9	6
Avg.goals scored p/m	3	1,33
Avg.goals conceded p/m	0,67	1,33
Avg.ball possession time p/m	45%	45,67%
Avg.corners number p/m	3,67	4,67
Avg.fouls number p/m	11,33	13,33
Avg.yellow cards number p/m	0,67	2

Because of the importance of the match (losing team is eliminated, the average of goals is rather low) bookmakers has set on under 2,5 odds at 1,66. On the bases of history of direct matches a score of over 2,5 goal is probable, although I’m worried about shooting form of Uruguay. Colombia has showed in recent matches that it can score 3 goals by itself, however it will not be so easy against Uruguay as it was in case of Japan or Greece. Due to the fact that the chance of under/over 2.5 goals is 50% in my opinion I would not play unless Suarez escapes his punishment I will play on over 2.5 goals.

Direct matches: