Aston Villa vs Manchester United - Premier League match analysis

author: Betin submitted: 11 December 2013

Bookmakers bet on the victory of “Red Devils”, last matches’ statistics speak in favour of the home team. Will MU be able to unlock and move up in the league table?

MU breakthrough is not coming... After the loss against Newcastle 0:1 at home MU practically buried the chances for title. Currently “Red Devils” occupy 9th place and are 3 points ahead of Aston Ville which qualifies itself on 10th place. Didn’t bookmakers exaggerated with the odds when taking into consideration such hopeless play of the MU? The truth is that Villa does not play a stunning football and it will definitely be a surprise if they win at home with Manchester United, but the odds at the level of 4.60 already are an amazement for me. Maybe bookmakers were guided by the outcomes of direct matches where MU was actually winning “if he wanted” but it is not the same team anymore. Currently Manchester United cannot even get a point when playing against Newcastle, or during a home game against Everton or ends up with a tie with lower level teams. In addition, next Tuesday Manchester will be playing a tough game against playing for life Shakhtar.

I treat the current match as a valuebet, and I am not convinced that Aston Villa is much worse than MU. I will bet on 1X with a stake of 3/10 (odds 2.1). It seems to me that it is worth to make a be without a draw for the win of home team, odds 3.5 the stake 1/10.

Direct matches lead me to play on more than 2.5 goals (odds 1.8) although Manchester’s indolence of scoring is quite large so I would be careful with the stake, 1/10 seems fair.

Average goals per game involving Aston Villa in the Premier League - 2.7 goal / match
Average goals per game involving Manchester United in the Premier League - 2.3 goal / match

Last Aston Villa home matches