Analysis of promotion/relegation play off - Derby vs. Queens Park Rangers

In the promotion/relegation matches against Brighton, Derby players showed that they are front runners for promotion to the Premier League. Two victories, first during away game 1:2 and than 4:1 at home in a very good style - they give hope for advance. However, bookmakers have set surprisingly high odds for the home team. For victory of Derby 2,38, for a draw 3,20, for QPR’s victory 3,00.

Even though only one match will decide who will be the winner, the Derby’s quality of play is a lot better in every formation.

In the first play-off matches Queens Park Ranger managed to win against Wigan but only in extra time, and despite quite a solid game at this stage it will be pretty hard to get a good result at Wembley. I bet on Derby County at  low stake 2/10 primarily because of the history of the direct matches between the two teams. In addition I will put on a bet without a tie on the home team (odds 1,70).

Last Derby’s home matches:

• Derby : Brighton 4:1
• Derby : Watford 4:2
• Derby : Barsney 2:1
• Derby : Huddersfield 3:1
• Derby : Charlton 3:0
• Derby : Nottingham 5:0

Last QPR’s away matches:

• Wigan : QPR 0:0
• Barnsley : QPR 2:3
• Leicester : QPR 1:0
• Blackburn : QPR 2:0
• Bournemouth : QPR 2:1
• Middlesbrough : QPR 1:3

Direct Matches:

• Derby : QPR 1:0
• QPR : Derby 2:1
• QPR : Derby 0:0
• Derby : QPR 2:2
• QPR : Derby 1:1
• Derby : QPR 2:4