AC Milan vs. Inter - match analysis

Milan derby - in favour of Inter again?

I’ve looked through statistics from last years and I am totally surprised. Out of 12 last matches 10 were won by Inter and the other two ended with a draw. Statistics do not lie - Inter feels better at the San Siro. Last time Milan won was in February of 2009. How will it turn out this time? Bookmakers see Milan, which plays at home, as their front runner. Odds for Milan’s victory are at 2,40, for draw 3,50, 2,80 for Inter’s victory. Why is Milan a front runner? Truly I cannot indicate anything that would speak for their victory?

The situation in the table is rather clear and Milan’s chance to get to European League is only illusory (6 points less than fifth Inter, 3 matches until the end of a season). On the other hand  Inter has 5 more points than AC Torino, Lazio and Verona, and if it wins it will practically sure of not losing its current place. Looking at the potential and form of both teams in this match i would bet for a tie.

Derby are govern by their own laws and usually are characterised by sharp fight in the middle of a field, not necessarily filled with a large number of tight corners. Statistically between AC Milan and Inter there are not many points scored. I will play on Asian handicap at under 3 goals stake 2/10, odds 1,55.

• Average goals per game involving AC Milan in Serie A - 2.8 goal/match
• Average goals per game involving Inter in Serie A - 2.6 goal/match

Last AC Milan’s matches:

• Milan : Livorno 3:0
• Milan : Catania 1:0
• Milan : Chievo 3:0
• Milan : Parma 2:4
• Milan : Juventus 0:2
• Milan : Bologna 1:0

Last Inter Milan’s matches:

• Parma : Inter 0:2
• Samdoria : Inter 0:4
• Livorno : Inter 2:2
• Verona : Inter 0:2
• AS Roma : Inter 0:0
• Fiorentina : Inter 1:2

Direct Matches:

• Inter : Milan 1:0
• Inter : Milan 1:1
• Milan : Inter 0:1
• Inter : Milan 2:1
• Inter: Milan 4:2
• Milan : Inter 0:1
• Milan : Inter 0:1