Sports Betting Guide
How to exploit Over/Under markets?
More and more punters are getting tired of traditional 1X2 markets. The drive to find more value and diversify your betting makes people explore new horizons. The constant development of the betting industry opened up opportunities to place a wager on other equally fascinating aspects of sports.
In our today’s guide, we would like to talk about Over/Under betting markets, how they work and, of course, how to exploit it, in order to gain an edge over the bookie. So bare with us.
Today we would like to focus on football, mainly Over/Under goals markets. Everyone knows that scoring a goal in football is not a very frequent event. This makes football results highly unpredictable, which makes millions of people worldwide love it. The low scoring frequency in football makes the knock-out competitions and short tournaments unbelievably hard to bet on via 1X2 or 1/2 markets. A minor score change could lead to a well-analysed bet being thrown into the trash can.
However, such a rather patterned scoring leads to an easier evaluation of the market situation. Bettors and bookmakers have many tools to count the probable averages of goals. This possibly raises interest among both parties.
We would like to explain how these Over/Under goal markets work, are they worth betting on and how to predict those goals, in a quick step-by-step tutorial.
To start off, you need to know how many goals are actually being scored per game, to be more precise, you need the average number of those. To find out how many goals are scored on average, you would need to take some historical data from one of the top European leagues (the best case). It is important to remember that these averages would vary from league to league and most importantly, from team to team. So the best way to analyse it would be to take the two teams you’re interested in betting on and check their averages. You should face any problems finding this data
Your next step is to calculate the probability of goal scoring. For that, you would need to use the simple predictive model (Poisson distribution). We are not going to get too much into the inner working of the Poisson distribution, as we have already explained how it works in one of our previous betting guides. In short, you have to find goal probabilities for both sides and based on that, make your final prediction.
After you found the probability of your goals, you have to convert them into actual odds to be able to compare them to those offered by the bookmaker. To do so, you have to input data in this simple formula:
Decimal odds = 100/ probability
After getting the odds, you can go back to the bookmaker and compare which line he offers complies with your results.
Do not get it twisted!!! This approach does not guarantee you a 100% winning bet. It is only a betting strategy that can help you achieve long-term profits. It is an easy way to conduct research ahead of placing a bet. Spend some time before wagering on the next football match and enjoy better results in your Over/Under betting with this easy-to-use strategy. Happy Betting!