Sports Betting Guide

Tipster’s strategy - hindsight bias effect

When do we succeed? Whenever we learn everything about the opponent & their strong and weak sides. Do not forget, sports betting follows the same principles. That is exactly why we regularly share our knowledge and experience with you. Today, we would like to talk about the hindsight bias effect.

hindsight bias effect in sports betting

Knowledge? Experience? Cold head? Or maybe luck? What makes some achieve success in sports betting, while others keep struggling with it? Of course, all the factors play an important role in this process. Some do more, some less, however, according to the law of large numbers, something like luck is irrelevant for your calculations.

«I knew it was coming» or «I had a feeling, that team X would win the game» - how many times have you said a similar thing to yourself? The interesting fact is that all of this, what seems to be an innocent habit, is actually a huge danger that is sneaking up on every punter. Phycologist around the world even gave it a name - the hindsight bias effect.

Skill paradox in betting

Material benefits are only a part of the reasons why people opt-in to register with one of the top online bookmakers. Another, some would say a more significant, incentive is emotions that come from betting. During the wagering activity, our brain experience processes similar to those stimulated by drugs. That would either be euphoria or a strong feeling being down depending on the final outcome.

The hindsight bias effect is a completely natural consequence of a brain’s self-protection mechanism from the latter outcome. Every consecutive loss is automatically being blamed on the bad luck, goalkeepers mistake or wrong referee’s decision. What is more, in order to justify it for ourselves, we often say that we knew exactly that this would happen, but due to some unlucky coincidence, we did not place the bet otherwise. Therefore, we almost won, meaning we are on the right track and do not have to change anything. Thus, the results will come down the road.

There is nothing more wrong than this! The «almost» win does not have anything to do with A WIN! The «almost» win is a loss and should only be treated like that, not otherwise. Our brain must receive this warning signal and just like every computer in the world should start looking for solutions. First of all, it must make us aware that we are doing something wrong and that our strategy still needs some work. Accepting a mistake is not shameful, instead, it is a first step towards evaluating the problem and finding the solution. Falling for hindsight bias all the time will never lead you to something like that.

Confirmation bias in sports betting

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Will Opening Ceremony Tokio 2020 take place on 24/07/2020?
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