Sports Betting Guide
The principles of successful penalty card betting
Successful penalty card betting can be very profitable. Here are the guidelines that will help you to make a winning bet.
What to consider while betting on penalty cards?
- Teams - matches of some teams are very similar - from the very first minute there are visible tensions on the field. Sometimes, all you need is for one of the teams to commit a brutal foul at the beginning of the match and the other team will react and instantly adjust (often despite not having aggressive style of play in their nature). However, it is worth to be cautious as for the bookmakers are offering an ridiculously high penalty cards borderline for games in which a team known for brutal style is playing.
- We have also noticed a different regularity. After some time, the referees are getting used to the more aggressive style of playing of a particular team and stop showing them penalty cards that often. The best example is Atletico Madrid team which, since the arrival of Diego Simeone, play aggressive football full of pressure of the opponent. Initially, the referees disciplined the players for every rougher tackle, but nowadays they got used to their style and they show them less penalty cards.
- The tactics of both teams is also very important. If the team X often attacks through the flanks using fast and agile wingers there is a good chance that the full-back defenders of the opponent team will have problems marking them and after few fouls will get a penalty card. From the other hand, if team Y is very offensive-minded, its full-backs can play a 1 vs 1 duels with quick forwards of the opposition in case of the counter-attack, and commit a lot of fouls.
- Generally, the defenders are more prone to be given the penalty card than the offensive players. It sounds very plainly, but it is more complex than it seems. The analysis of the statistics showed that for the same amount of fouls, a defender will receive a card and a forward not necessarily (60% of the defenders committing 4 fouls finishes the match with at least a yellow card and in the case of forwards it is only 30%). The reason behind this is the strategic importance of place where the foul was committed. The defenders commonly commit a foul close to their net, protecting the team from losing a goal (they benefit while stopping the rival from benefiting from the situation at the same time). The forwards commit fouls mostly away from their own penalty box, and in most cases their fouls are committed in a situation where they fight for good position. The referees discipline individually the defenders more often.
- The statistics show that more cards is shown to the teams that are not considered as the favourites of the match. They are usually pushed back to deep defensive and when forced to run after the ball they tend to foul.The exception are the matches when the favourite struggles. In that case, there is often frustration and need to take out the negative emotions on the rival.
- The place of the match - The study shows that the away team players are more likely to be disciplined with a penalty card (in the analysed season of the Champions League the study showed 25% of discipline cases for the home team and 75% for the guests, so the difference is really huge). Of course, it is not a certain thing, but this statistics makes you think. Unfamiliar field, difficult game, fanatic supporters, it all contributes to the breakdown of both the away team and the referee who more often shows the guest team penalty cards because of the pressure from the crowd.
- Phase of the season - as it was calculated by the statisticians, more cards are shown during the first few games of the campaign. It is like that due to the freshness of the players who are full of life and eager to play. What is more, in the initial part of the season, the players do not think about the consequences and potential exclusions from next fixtures in case of a larger number of received penalty cards. Furthermore, at the beginning of the season every team plays for ‘something’, all of them have their bigger or smaller aspirations for the upcoming campaign. At the end of the season it is only few teams that fight for the place in the European cups or relegation, with the majority of player’s of the rest of the teams playing for their contract extensions, so basically those teams play for nothing. It is hard to expect commitment, will of fight or brutal fouls from players that already dream about vacations on a sunny beach with a beautiful blonde at their side.
- Country and league - there are nations (for example, balkan countries) and stadiums, on which the atmosphere is especially hot and the pressure from the fans put on both the opposition and the referee is higher than anywhere else. Such games often seem to have very little in common with football, looking more like an MMA fight.
- Very interesting are also the statistics concerned with the number of penalty cards in top European leagues. As it turns out the highest average number of shown cards per game (5,50) is observed in Spanish Primera Division, a league which is considered to be full of players with great technique. A little less surprising seems the second place for the Italian Serie A (5,00). Though definitely surprising are the last places for German Bundesliga (3,50) and (shockingly) English Premier League (3,50), which is famous for its intensity. It may be that the psychologic aspect that we already mentioned before is present here (the referees start to be unaffected by constant rough style of playing).
- The prestige of the match - it is obvious that the higher the importance of the match is, the rougher the teams will play.
- The significance of the match requires from the players extreme caution for not losing the goal. This results in higher number of fouls and thus penalty cards. A prestigious match also means stadium packed with lively, passionate fans that often have great influence on the referee’s decisions.
- There are of course exceptions. It is hard to imagine games with higher prestige and importance than those of the World Cup or European Championship, but statistically, the referees show less penalty cards in those competitions. Why it is like that? Do players do not fight for the win? Do they let the opposition play as they want to? The answer to these is questions is no. On major tournaments, second yellow card means missing the next match, and that is why the players try not to be shown a penalty card.
- In league competitions in every country there are a lot of fixtures and the absence of a key player in an important game is not so bothersome. A big tournament means only few matches to be played and each of them is very important. For example, losing two central defenders from the main squad before a quarter-final match can destroy the plans for even the best team, and the potential loss cannot be compensated in a next fixture, like it is in the league competitions. Here, for the team to loose the match means elimination from the tournament and end to the dream about potential medals.- Team status - it is often in player’s interest to be shown a penalty card and miss the next match (for example, the last group game at the World Cup) in order to ‘clean’ himself from all received cards before the next phase of the tournament.
- Obviously we do not approve such actions, but if they can help us make a winning bet we do not see any harm in it.
- The referee - last but not least is the man in black. Even if other conditions that we already mentioned are advantageous, the bet could still be unsuccessful if the referee will not do his job. It is mainly him that will decide if our coupon will win, that is why it is good to have some data about him ahead. Especially when it comes to penalty cards, which in truth, are solely his own interpretation of the events happening on the field. Although the referees are following certain protocol and code of rules, at the end of the day, it is human that makes the decision.
- There are referees that are sharp as a knife in their decisions and alleviate any conflicts between the players from the first minutes of the match. On the other hand, there are those that constantly try to discipline players but reach for penalty card as a last resort. We can find all necessary information concerning the referee, like the average number of penalty cards he shows per a fixture or the list of the matches he previously overseen, on the internet. Good analysis is the key to a successful betting.