Sports Betting Guide
The influence of the penalty cards on the result of the match
Some bettors underestimate the statistics, for example the number of committed fouls in a game. This is a huge mistake because every committed foul increases the chances for a team to receive a yellow card. What is more, every received yellow card raise the risk of getting a player expelled because of a red card and from that it is very close to losing a goal and even an entire match. Let us take a closer look at how penalty cards influence the game.
Yellow card for team X increases the risk of getting a card for team Y
While betting on the penalty cards in the match one must understand that the process of receiving the cards during the game is similar to the one making a snowball. Up to the moment of the first serious foul or first shown card nothing foreshadows a rough game. It is only after a brutal attack of the opposition or referee’s mistake, including undeserved penalty card, that throws the teams out of balance and could result in a several penalty cards. The players influence each other and start playing, sometimes subconsciously, a lot more rougher than they used to. Of course, the referee plays an important part in this. Insistent, but most of all impartial and fair referee can ease the tensions when needed while incompetent one will only make them worse. It has been proven that every card for team X increases the chances for penalty cards for team Y players. Why is that? Because the referees have a tendency for balancing their decisions during the match. While giving more penalty cards to team X, they often think they are biased and they favour the other team, that is why they sometimes try to compensate team X for their previous decisions and punish team Y.
Does the red card given while there is a draw mean a certain loss?
As we mentioned at the beginning, with every committed foul, the risk of a yellow, and consequently red card is getting higher and thus the result of the match will be influenced by it. The statisticians calculated that the goal-scoring ability of a team playing with one player advantage significantly raises to a 65%. And what are the chances for a team playing one man down to keep a good result till the end of the match? As it turned out, if a player got a card while there was a draw, only 5% of teams playing one man down managed to win the match. In 30% of the cases the result did not changed till the last minute and in 65% cases the weaker team lost the match. This statistics evidently shows that every single foul counts and could be the crucial factor to a potential loss.
How the red card influences the home team and how the away side?
Generally in football, the home team have always some sort of an advantage, the same goes for penalty cards. The atmosphere in the stadium and the pressure from the fans often influence the referees as they give penalty cards more frequently to the away team players, rather than the home team ones. Despite how hard it is to believe it, statistically away team players get 65% of all given cards in a game - it is a huge difference.
It was also estimated that the red card for the guest team increases the home team chances for a goal for 70% (while in the opposite situation the guest team gets ‘only’ 60% chances).
It is like that due to the motivation and additional strength that a team gets when one of its player’s is send off while playing on its home ground, cheered by its fans.