Arsenal vs. Manchester City - match analysis

The Gunner vs The Citizens, which team will show the real strength?

A big spectacle is awaiting us at the beginning of the Premiership’s 4th round. Arsenal will play against England’s champion Manchester City. At the beginning of the season The Citizens made better impression although recent lost at home against Stoke (1:0) shows that their shape is not stabilized yet.

Even though the Gunners have been obtaining good results it can be seen that it is not easy for them. An advance to Champions League a the cost of Basiktas was sometimes at risk and unimposing win during a home game gave them the score 1:0 and the advance. In the league to draws during away games and again unimposing win against Crystal Palace at home 2:1. Bookmakers see Manchester City as a front runner, odds are at 2,38 for win, 3,50 for a draw, and 2,88 for Arsenal’s win. In my opinion the match is very hard to set odds and it is hard to pick a front runner. Direct matches statistics does not tell us a lot as well, and even looking back at them its hard to pick a front runner. If I were to bet on this match I would have bet for a draw.

Surely everyone remembers a match from last year’s December, where Manchester City won against Arsenal 6:3. A fantastic game with large number of goals. In my opinion because of such matches many players will be betting on over 2,5 or over 3,5 and because of that the odds are too low and not adequate to current situation. Let’s remember that high scores are not usual and in this case I see a valuebet for under 3,5. Arsenal currently plays in defence and and scores a lot of goals, when it comes to Manchester City, Stoke has showed how to play in defence and Arsenal should use this knowledge.

• An average number of goals scored in matches against Arsenal in English league this season - 1,67 per match
• An average number of goals scored in matches against Manchester City in English league this season - 1,67 per match.

Recent Arsenal’s home matches:

• Arsenal : Crystal Palace 2:1 (current season)
• Arsenal : West Brom 1:0
• Arsenal : Newcastle 3:0
• Arsenal : West Ham 3:1
• Arsenal : Manchester City 1:1

Recent Manchester City’s away matches:

• Newcastle : Manchester City 0:2 (current season)
• Everton : Manchester City 2:3
• Crystal Palace : Manchester City 0:2
• Liverpool : Manchester City 3:2
• Arsenal : Manchester City 1:1

Direct matches:

• Arsenal : Manchester City 3:0
• Arsenal : Manchester City 1:1
• Manchester City : Arsenal 6:3
• Manchester City : Arsenal 1:3
• Arsenal : Manchester City 0:2
• Manchester City : Arsenal 1:1