Sports Betting Guide
When are the most goals scored in football?
When it comes to football, the majority of bets placed on it is concerned with the winner of the match. It is known, that football punters like to back one of the teams and then nervously sit in front of the tv, watching the game and hoping that the team they placed their money on will win.
It is very common that the team that we placed our money on loses the game, despite being the favourite. Aren't you tired of the regular match winner bets? Fortunately, the bookmakers are offering more and more interesting wagers on football. Many of them are not connected to the final result of the match, but to separate match events. One of such options is betting on the periods of time where the most goals would be scored. The odds for such bets are usually quite attractive. That is why it is hard to believe that many punters still do not place money on such bets. We hope that after reading this article, you will realise that betting on such things is easy and can be very profitable.
Certainly, all bookmakers' customers stumbled upon bets such as Early Goal, Late Goal or Half with Most Goals. More experienced punters may skip this part, but we would suggest those who just started their betting adventure to read this section carefully. We will shortly describe the most popular goal time bets that are offered by the top online bookmakers.
- Early Goal - the bet for the goal in the first minutes of the game. The bookmaker sets a line (usually between the start of the game and 21- 30 minute), and the punter's job is to decide whether there will be a goal before that line or not. It does not matter which team scores as long as there is a goal. The odds for such event are roughly about 1.80 (4/5) for both results (goal before the line or not).
- Late Goal - very similar bet to the Early Goal, with the only difference that here we predict whether there will be a goal after the line offered by the bookmaker (set usually between 71 - 79 minute and the end of the game). Once again, it does not matter who will score, as long as there are goals. The odds for this event are also around 1.80 (4/5) for both results (goal after the line or not).
- Half with Most Goals - as the name suggests it, the punter must predict which half of the match will have more goals. The bookmaker offers us three options: more goals before the break, more goals in the second half or even number of goals in both halves (for example, 0:0). The odds for such bets are usually quite long with 3.10 (21/10) price for the first half, 2.00 (1/1) - for the second and 3.60 (13/5) - for even number of goals.
Enough with the theory, let's check the statistics.
When are the most goals scored?
The numbers clearly show that more goals are scored in second halves of football matches. The analysis of goal time statistics from the most popular football leagues and competitions both at the club and international level indicate that the majority of goals is being scored near the end of the match.
Let's take the example of the 2011/2012 English Premier League season.
|Team||I half||II half|
|Total goals||%||Total goals||%|
There are more goals in the 2nd half in every top football league
Most of the top European football leagues follow the same trend. Please, check out the comparison of the goals scored in each half in the best European football leagues during the 2011/2012 season.
Italian Serie A (50 matches, 128 goals, an average of 2,6 goals per game)
|I half||56 (44%)|
|II half||72 (56%)|
|I quarter of the I half||19 (15%)|
|II quarter of the I half||21 (16%)|
|III quarter of the I half||16 (13%)|
|I quarter of the II half||25 (20%)|
|II quarter of the II half||13 (10%)|
|III quarter of the II half||34 (27%)|
Spanish Primera Division (60 matches, 156 goals, an average of 2,6 goals per game)
|I half||69 (44%)|
|II half||87 (56%)|
|I quarter of the I half||26 (17%)|
|II quarter of the I half||22 (14%)|
|III quarter of the I half||21 (13%)|
|I quarter of the II half||27 (17%)|
|II quarter of the II half||31 (20%)|
|III quarter of the II half||29 (19%)|
French Ligue 1 (90 matches, 233 goals, an average of 2,6 goals per game)
|I half||98 (42%)|
|II half||135 (58%)|
|I quarter of the I half||28 (12%)|
|II quarter of the I half||21 (9%)|
|III quarter of the I half||49 (21%)|
|I quarter of the II half||31 (13%)|
|II quarter of the II half||47 (20%)|
|III quarter of the II half||57 (24%)|
German Bundesliga (72 matches, 209 goals, an average of 2,9 goals per game)
|I half||90 (42%)|
|II half||119 (58%)|
|I quarter of the I half||27 (13%)|
|II quarter of the I half||33 (16%)|
|III quarter of the I half||30 (14%)|
|I quarter of the II half||33 (16%)|
|II quarter of the II half||35 (17%)|
|III quarter of the II half||51 (24%)|
Dutch Eredivisie (72 matches, 243 goals, an average of 3,4 goals per game)
|I half||100 (41%)|
|II half||143 (59%)|
|I quarter of the I half||27 (11%)|
|II quarter of the I half||28 (12%)|
|III quarter of the I half||45 (19%)|
|I quarter of the II half||41 (17%)|
|II quarter of the II half||39 (16%)|
|III quarter of the II half||63 (26%)|
The late goals tournament
The statistics look the same when it comes to major international competitions. The 2016 European Championship in France is a great example. There were 108 goals (an average of 2.12 per game - the lowest since Euro 96) during the 51 matches played at French stadiums. Only 42 of them were scored during the first half, while 62 goals were scored after the break. In the first 15 minutes, we have witnessed merely 13 goals. However, players netted 28 goals after the 76th minute. What is more, if you would like to dig even deeper, there were more goals scored in the last quarter of the match (28), compared to the ones scored during the first 30 minutes (21)!
|Goal time||1-15||16-30||31-45||45+||46-60||61-75||76-90||90+||Extra time|
Is it worth betting on the Late Goal option?
Yes, and no. The statistics presented above clearly shows that more goals are scored in the last moments of the match, than in the first few minutes. It seems quite obvious and logical that most players are tired near the end of the game, which causes them to make more mistakes. The substitutes are mostly offensive-minded players that can make a difference because they are fresh and rested. This gives them a significant advantage over the defenders who are usually slower and more tired. What is more, very often the final result of the match is decided in the last minutes of the match. The team that is losing or drawing goes all-in to score a goal and get a better result, which sometimes ends up very poorly for them.
The bookmakers are well-aware that most goals are scored near the end of the match as they analyse thousands of games daily. Thus, why do they offer the same odds for the Early Goal and the Late Goal options? Statistically, this would give an edge to punters, that would place money on the Late Goal bets. In reality, it is all about the smart bookmakers' trick.
Look at the time brackets of the Early Goal - it is usually much longer than in the case of a Late Goal (difference of few minutes). The players typically have 28 minutes to score an Early Goal, while they have only 15 for the Late one. The bookmakers do this to even the chances between both options. Well, it doesn't mean that we can't outplay them.
There are games with a very high probability of Late Goal. The ones that you are sure there will happen a lot in the last quarter of the match. These are, for example, derby matches or second-legs of the national and European cups - if both teams are on a similar level, it is usually a late goal that could make the difference, especially if one of the teams has to score to advance into the next round. It is similar in the case of play-off stage matches in the major international tournaments such as European Championships or World Cup. If it is only a single match that puts the fate of the team on the line, the players will do everything in their power to score and win, even if that requires fighting till the very last minute.