Sports Betting Guide
When are the most goals scored in football?
When it comes to football, the majority of bets placed on this discipline of sport is concerned with the winner of the match. It is known that football punters like to back one of the teams and then nervously sit in front of the tv, watching the game and hoping that the team they placed their money on, will win.
Very often though, the team that we placed our money on, loses the game, despite being the favourite. Aren’t You tired of regular bets for the winner of the match? Fortunately, the bookmakers are offering more and more interesting types of bets on football. Many of them is not connected to the final result of the match, just to the events of the game. One of such options are the bets for the periods of the match that will have most scored goals. The odds for such bets are usually quite good. That is why, it is hard to believe that many punters still does not place money on such bets. We hope that after reading this article, you will realise that betting using such bets is easy and can be very profitable.
Bookmakers offers goal time bets
Certainly, all bookmakers customers stumbled upon bets such as Early Goal, Late Goal or Half with Most Goals. More experienced punters may skip this part, but it is advised that those that only begun their sports betting adventure, read this section. Here, we will describe in few words the most popular goal time bets that are offered by Bet365 bookmaker.
- Early Goal - the bet for the goal in the first minutes of the game. The bookmaker sets a line (usually between the start of the game and 21- 30 minute) and the punter’s job is to decide whether there will be a goal before that line or not. It does not matter which team scores as long as there is a goal. The odds for such event are roughly about 4/5 (1.80) for both results (goal before the line or not).
- Late Goal - very similar bet to the Early Goal, with only difference that here we predict whether there will be a goal after the line offered by the bookmaker (set usually between 71 - 79 minute and the end of the game). Once again, it does not matter who will score, as long as there are goals. The odds for this event are also around 4/5 (1.80) for both result (goal after the line or not).
- Half with Most Goals - as the name suggest it, here, the punter must predict which half of the match will have more goals. The bookmaker offers us three options: more goals before the break, more goal in the second half or even number of goals in both halves (for example 0:0). The odds for such bets are usually quite high with 21/10 (3.10) offered for I half, evens (2.00) for II and 13/5 (3.60) for even number of goals.
Enough with the theory, let us check the statistics.
When are the most goals scored?
The numbers clearly show that more goals are scored in the second halves of football matches. The analysis of goal time statistics from the most popular football leagues and competitions both at the club and international level indicate, that the majority of goals is being scored near the end of the match.
Let us take the example of English Premier League 2011/2012 season.
|Team||I half||II half|
|Total goals||%||Total goals||%|
There are more goals in II half in every top football league
It is no different in other top European football leagues. Below, we present the statistics for the goal time in all matches of the 2011 / 2012 season from best European league competitions.
- Italian Serie A (50 matches, 128 goals, an average of 2,6 goals per game)
|I half||56 (44%)|
|II half||72 (56%)|
|I quarter of the I half||19 (15%)|
|II quarter of the I half||21 (16%)|
|III quarter of the I half||16 (13%)|
|I quarter of the II half||25 (20%)|
|II quarter of the II half||13 (10%)|
|III quarter of the II half||34 (27%)|
- Spanish Primera Division (60 matches, 156 goals, an average of 2,6 goals per game)
|I half||69 (44%)|
|II half||87 (56%)|
|I quarter of the I half||26 (17%)|
|II quarter of the I half||22 (14%)|
|III quarter of the I half||21 (13%)|
|I quarter of the II half||27 (17%)|
|II quarter of the II half||31 (20%)|
|III quarter of the II half||29 (19%)|
- French Ligue 1 (90 matches, 233 goals, an average of 2,6 goals per game)
|I half||98 (42%)|
|II half||135 (58%)|
|I quarter of the I half||28 (12%)|
|II quarter of the I half||21 (9%)|
|III quarter of the I half||49 (21%)|
|I quarter of the II half||31 (13%)|
|II quarter of the II half||47 (20%)|
|III quarter of the II half||57 (24%)|
- German Bundesliga (72 matches, 209 goals, an average of 2,9 goals per game)
|I half||90 (42%)|
|II half||119 (58%)|
|I quarter of the I half||27 (13%)|
|II quarter of the I half||33 (16%)|
|III quarter of the I half||30 (14%)|
|I quarter of the II half||33 (16%)|
|II quarter of the II half||35 (17%)|
|III quarter of the II half||51 (24%)|
- Dutch Eredivisie (72 matches, 243 goals, an average of 3,4 goals per game)
|I half||100 (41%)|
|II half||143 (59%)|
|I quarter of the I half||27 (11%)|
|II quarter of the I half||28 (12%)|
|III quarter of the I half||45 (19%)|
|I quarter of the II half||41 (17%)|
|II quarter of the II half||39 (16%)|
|III quarter of the II half||63 (26%)|
Euro 2016 was the tournament of the late goals
The statistics look the same when it comes to major international tournaments. 2016 European Championships in France are a great example of this. There was 108 goals (an average of 2.12 per a game - the lowest since Euro 96) during the 51 matches played at the French stadiums. Only 42 of them were scored during the first half, while 62 goals were scored after the break. In the first 15 minutes we have witnessed merely 13 goals. From the other hand, after the 76 minute, the players netted 28 goals. What is more, overall in the last quarters of the matches, there was a lot more goals (28) than in the first 30 minutes (21)!
|Goal time||1-15||16-30||31-45||45+||46-60||61-75||76-90||90+||Extra time|
Is it worth betting on Late Goal option?
Yes, and no. The statistics presented above clearly show, that more goals are scored in the last moments of the match, than in first few minutes. It seems quite obvious and logical. Near the end of the game, most players are tired and this cause them to make more mistakes. The substitutes are mostly offensive-minded players that can make a difference because they are fresh and rested. This gives them a significant advantage over the defenders who are usually slower and more tired. What is more, very often the final result of the match is decided in the last minutes of the match. The team that is losing or drawing often risks everything to score a goal and get a good result, which sometimes ends very poorly for them as they could lost another goal.
The bookmakers are well aware that most goals are scored near the end of the match as they analyse the same statistics as we have. Thus, why they offer same odds for Early Goal and Late Goal options? Statistically, this would give an edge to the punters, that would make money on Late Goal bets with good odds. In reality, it is not like that, and it is all because a clever trick of the bookmaker companies.
Look at the time brackets of the Early Goal - it is usually much longer than in the case of a Late Goal (difference of few minutes). Very often, the players have 28 minutes to score an Early Goal, while they have only 15 minutes to score the Late Goal. The bookmakers do this to even the chances between both options. Nevertheless, it does not mean that we cannot outwit them.
There are games with very high probability of Late Goal. The ones that you are certain there will happen a lot in the last quarter of the match. These are, for example, derby matches or second-legs of the national and European cups - if both teams are on similar level, it is usually a late goal that could make the difference. Especially if one of the team have to score to progress into the next round. It is similar in case of play-off phase matches in the major international tournaments such as European Championships or World Cup. If it is only a single match that will decide about the fate of the team in the competition, the players will do everything in their power to score and win, even if they have to fight till the very last minute.