Sports Betting Guide
How are the most goals scored?
Have you ever wondered how are the most goals in football scored? After an open play or a set piece? After a regular shot or a header? If you knew the answers to such questions, it would be much easier to make a winning bet. In this article we would analyse the scoring patterns in football as well as explain how to use knowledge about them in sports betting.
First Goal Method bets
Some bookmakers have bets for the goal-scoring methods in its offer. The odds for such bets, for example, for the First Goal Method are usually pretty decent with 1/2 (1.50) odds for a regular shot with a foot, 4/1 (5.00) for a header, 11/1 (12.00) for a penalty kick, 16/1 (17.00) for a free kick and a 20/1 (21.00) odds for an own goal. There is of course an option for no first goal (which means no goals at all), but the odds for it tend to shift from 7/1 (8.00) up to 20/1 (21.00).
How are the most goals scored in Premier League?
Let us analyse the goal scoring patterns of the teams competing in the Premier League in season 2015 / 2016.
|Club||Goals||Open play||Header||Free kick||Penalty||Corner|
|West Ham United||64||33||15||8||4||4|
We can observe, that some teams scored the majority of their goals after an open play with the involvement of all or almost all players of the team. A good example is Norwich, which scored that way 28 goals (28 / 38 - 73% of all their goals) and Manchester United with 33 goals (33 / 46 - 72% of all their goals). In cases of such teams, it can be good to bet for a shot as the method of the first goal. From the other hand, there are teams, like West Bromwich Albion, that do not excel in such statistics (8 / 32 - only 25% of all their goals). Here, it would be best to be more cautious and consider other options.
The statistics of the goals scored after set pieces can also help in determining the method of how the goal was scored. In case of Leicester City, we can see a high tendency when it comes to goals after penalties (10 / 67 - 15% of all their goals). Another interesting example is Sunderland, which players scored 9 goals (9 / 44 - 20% of all their goals) after direct free kicks. Remembering that the odds for a free kick as the First Goal Method can be up to 16/1 (17.00), it is an option that is certainly worth considering when it comes to some teams.
What about goals after headers? After all, the odds for such option are usually around 4/1 (5.00). This seems very tempting, especially in case of particular teams that are superior in air because of their average height and heading abilities of their players. Already mentioned West Brom is a perfect example. It’s players scored 12 goals (12 / 32 - 37% of all their goals) after headers. Arsenal players seem to be also quite good in the air with 16 goals (16 / 62 - 26% of all their goals) scored after header shots. Betting on a header as the method of the first goal in a match with those teams could be very profitable. From the other hand, betting on such option on games with the involvement of teams like Sunderland (2 / 44 - 4,5 % of all their goals) and Norwich (3 / 38 - 8% of all their goals) which rarely scored goals after headers was doomed to failure.
Enough with the team statistics. Let us look into the numbers of an individual players of the Premier League clubs in season 2015 / 2016.
Given the aerial abilities of some players, it is less probable that the first goal in a match with their involvement will be a header. Harry Kane for example, despite his height, scored only one header goal in that season of the Premier League. Given that he was both Tottenham’s and entire league’s top goalscorer with 25 goals (25 / 68 - 36% of all their goals) it was hard to imagine that a first goal in a Tottenham match would be a header. Same goes for Leicester’s Jamie Vardy, who was the top scorer for the unexpected Premier League champions with 24 goals (24 / 67 - 36% of all their goals) but only 2 of them were headers. Furthermore, both Vardy and Mahrez scored an overall of 41 goals that season which was 60% of all Leicester goals but only 3 of them were headers! This means that there was a very little chance there would be a header goal in a Leicester match overall, not mentioning the first goal. From the other hand, Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud scored 16 goals (16 / 62 - 26% of all their goals) and almost half of them (7 / 16) were header goals. With that knowledge, one could make a fortune on goal scoring method bets.
How often there are header goals?
When it comes to headers, let us check how many goals after header shots were scored by the best goalscorers in the English Premier League and Spanish Primera Division between 2003 and 2013.
|PREMIER LEAGUE 2003/2013|
|Ruud van Nistelrooy||95||14||14,74%|
|Robin van Persie||92||5||5,43%|
|PRIMERA DIVISION 2003/2013|
|Ruud van Nistelrooy||41||7||17,07%|
The most striking thing that you can see in above statistics is that Peter Crouch scored almost half of his goals with a header. This seems quite obvious given his height (2,01m), but still, this numbers must impress. Because of that, there was higher probability of a header goal in a match with his involvement, which could have been used in betting. Teddy Sheringham’s and Alan Shearer’s numbers were also quite good, as were the statistics of Radamel Falcao in Spanish La Liga.
If you think about the differences between both leagues, the reason for more header goals in England is obvious. It is hard to imagine such technically-skilled players as Lionel Messi or Zinedine Zidane to be very good in the aerial battles with the defenders. Of course, there are exceptions such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Sergio Ramos or Ruud van Nistelrooy, with the latter having a similar average of header goals in Spain as he had during his spell in England
How were goals scored at Euro 2016?
There is often a lot of surprises during the World Cups and European Championships and a lot of punters end such competitions under their balance. The answer to that problem could be the goal scoring method bets. We already covered both individual and team statistics at the club level, but what about major international tournaments? Let us analyse the example of the Euro 2016 hosted by France.
There was 51 games at the French tournament, during which there was 108 goals (an average of 2,12 goals per game, a goal every 41 minutes). 84 goals were scored after a regular shot (77,8%) and 24 were header goals (22,16%). This statistics are not much different from those from Euro 2012 (71% goals after regular shots - 28,9% headers) and those from Euro 2008 (80,5% goals after regular shots - 19,5% headers).
From which area of the field did players scored goals in France? From 108 total goals of the tournament, 91 were scored inside the penalty box. Interestingly, 19 of them were scored from the ’six-yard box’ - quite a lot isn’t it? When it comes to the goal scoring methods, 96 goals were scored after an open play (88,8%), 8 after penalty kick (7,4%) and only 4 after a direct free kick (3,7%) - with two of them scored by Gareth Bale. The free kick statistics are not much different from those from the previous tournaments, (1,3% in 2012 and 2,6% in 2008) while there was a few less goals after penalties in the previous editions of the European Championship (3,9% in 2012 and 5,2% in 2008).
We hope that this article would be helpful for punters who are interested in such bets. We think we have proved that there are games that have higher probability of goals scored by a certain method. We believe that the results of our analysis can be essential in determining the method of the first goal in a football match. Without a doubt, betting on such bets requires considerable knowledge and experience as well as thorough analysis of the event, but very often the attractive odds for such bets can be more than enough to compensate for that. Is it worth your time? It is up to you to decide. Our opinion is that betting on goal scoring methods can be very profitable.