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Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich match analysis

Many people call the upcoming match pre-finals. Which team is a front runner?

On April 23rd we will be facing a fantastic spectacle at Santiago Bernabeu. What are bookmakers predictions? According to them the home team is a front runner odds 2,38 odds for a draw 3,40, odds for win of away team 2,88. In my opinion odds should be set in an opposite way. In my opinion Bayern is the front runner and there are at least a few reasons for it. Firstly, Real was losing against good teams this season (twice lost against Barcelona 2:1 and 3:4, lost against Atletico Madrid 0:1, and lost important match against Sevilla 2:1, which might have been decisive in the Spain Championship). Secondly, Cristiano Ronaldo’s injury, it still is not sure whether he will be able to get back to his best.

The two-week break may influence his shape. Thirdly, Guariola knows Spanish football inside out and when he was Barcelona’s coach he showed that Galacticos can be won against. Fourthly, worse matches do no happen to Bayern during this season (I’m not counting loss to Hoffenheim). In my opinion Real’s advantage is its own field and statistics of direct matches at home - still I think that is not enough. I would not pay too much attention to the lost of Bayern against Borussia Dortmund. It’s hard to concentrate on a match if a title has been already conquered and a match can be seen as a social event. I will bet on Asian handicap for Bayern Munich 0, +0.5, odds 1,725 stake 3/10.

Bookmakers are for a great number of goals in this match. Odds for over 2,5 goals is 1,70 which looking at the destructive power of both teams in my opinion seems to be a good choice. If Borussia had been able to create so many tight situations I suspect that Bayern will have twice as much. During home games Real rarely scores less that 2 or 3 goals so I expect rather a high result. In addition statistic of matches of both teams clearly indicate many points scored. I bet on over 2,5 goals at the rate of 3/10.\

  • Average number of goals scored in matches involving Real Madrid in the Champions League this season - 4.1 goals/match
  • Average number of goals scored in matches involving Real Madrid in the Spanish league this season - 3.8 goals/match
  • Average number of goals scored in matches involving FC Bayern Munich in the Champions League this season - 3.2 goals/match
  • Average number of goals scored in matches involving FC Bayern Munich in the German League this season - 3.4 goals/match
  • Average number of goals in the last ten direct matches (not taking into account the Cup Friendly matches where in one of them score was 8:3 ) - 2.6 goal/match

Last Real’s matches in the Champions League at Santiago Berabeu:

  • Real Madrid : Dortmund 3:0
  • Real Madrid : Schalke 3:1
  • Real Madid : Galatasaray 4:1
  • Real Madrid : Juventus 2:1
  • Real Madrid : FC Kopenhaga 4:0

Last Bayern Munich’s away matches in Champions League:

  • Manchester United : Bayern Munich 1:1
  • Arsenal : Bayern Munich 0:2
  • CSKA Moscow : Bayern Munich 1:3
  • Plzen : Bayern Munich 0:1
  • Manchester City : Bayern Munich 1:3

Direct Matches:

  • Real Madrid : Bayern Munich 2:1 (penalty kicks 1:3 )
  • Bayern Munich : Real Madrid 2:1
  • Real Madrid : Bayern Munich 8:3 (Club Friendly 2011)
  • Bayern Munich : Real Madrid 0:0 (Club Firendly ) penalty kicks 2:4
  • Bayern Munich : Real Madrid 2:1
  • Real Madrid : Bayern Munich 3:2

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