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Is it worth to use cash out option?

Selling placed bets? What percentage of a bet do we lose or earn by closing a bet in the middle of the match?

Bookmakers keep on attracting players with new solutions which are to “make their lives easier”. Is that true? Recently, a fashionable trend is an offer for closing bets in the middle of a match. In general, this option is to keep the funds save, which, we can for example lose before closing bet, or win with which we can close the bet.
 

Example:

We bet 100 euro with odds 2,00. Our team wins 1:0 in 80th minute, bookmakers at this time give us 75% more so we have 175 euro to cash out. We cannot stand pressure and we withdrawal amount proposed by bookmaker. The question is if in this moment we get 75 euro or lose 25 euro, if in this moment offered odds are better by few percent?

Another example: Again we bet 100 euro and our team losses after first half 0:1. Bookmaker offers us closing the bet for 45 euro although according with odds could give use more than 47 euro. Again, the same question arises, is it better to cut the loss and close the bet or leave it ?

Biggest dilemma is in case of betting on a draw with the odds at 3.50 and towards the end of meeting (87 min) bookmakers offers us for example 280 euro (he could in this moment offer according with the odds 294 euro). Close or not to close, maybe I will regret later if a goal happens?

Do you think that bookmakers introduced cash out, in order to lower their profits? Is he giving us a tool which will let us win with him?

Everything would be honest if the cash out was made after real odds offered. However the comfort of closing bet costs and it costs much. It is not important if we do it right after betting, before the match, or in the middle of it.

Example: Bookmaker offers cash out 95 euro for a bet of 100 euro (odds at 1,90). Is it “honest value”. If we made a bet for 100 euro shouldn’t we have possibility to close it with the 100 euro cash out. Odds did not change… besides the beginning margin aren't we losing another few percent?

You need to remember, that first lines which are set by bookmaker are not without margin and depend on a company, and the risk is from 2% to 12%! So therefore while doing cash out statistically we can lose up to 17%.

Formula which presents fair cash out:

((A*(B-1)) – (Ax(C-1)))/C

Where:

  • A - original stake
  • B - original beginning odds
  • C - odds when we are closing a bet.

Let’s check how much offers us a bookmaker for closing a bet, and how much should we receive in reality.

Option cash out is very good to manipulate a player. Unfortunately most of it takes place in our head. From our brain there is contradictory information flow, from one side we are greedy but experienced from the other meaning they know that in many matches everything can change dramatically. Unfortunately our brain remembers also the bed. Even in 89 minute a had an excellent result in order for one action to lead to loss. If I had done cash out 1 minute earlier it would be a good profit… Next time I will do it in the 80th minute, and what if a goal will be scored in 79th minute? It is even worse if our team is leading 2:0 and the odds for win are at 1,05. Is than a bookmaker giving us profit almost from all the bet? Unfortunately no and in this case we are also doing cash out because we remember such matches selectively, situations in which the second team got the same score and we were left with nothing… Our brain remembers also bad things and it comes to a point where we want to close each bet and we are afraid even of improbable scenarios. Than thoughts such as “once I close a bet I would have won, if I didn’t I would have lost” come to mind. Is it really like that in the picture of the whole season? Is it like that according to the statistics?

In such a case shouldn’t we avoid closing bets on such conditions?

I agree, that I close bets myself, when I see that a team is losing strength, and the last minutes are only defence. Is closing a bet really for my benefit? Statistically in a longer run it does not look well but everyone must to check this on his own example. Without solid long term statistics almost every player thinks that it is worth to close bets….

Do you earn on closing thanks to “cash out” option? Feel free to share your thoughts and experience with us :)

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