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Betting odds
How are betting odds calculated?
Step 1 - calculation of the odds percentage
Step 2 - probability calculation
Step 3 – odds setting
Step 1 - calculation of the odds percentage
Step 2 - probability calculation
Step 3 – odds setting
How are betting odds calculated? to top
| There is no doubt that the work of the person who is calculating odds is neither easy, nor fast nor enjoyable, because it is hard, time consuming job and you will need particular skills to do it. Extensive knowledge in sports, foreign languages, mathematical rules, especially statistics or probability theory, the ability to think analytically, patience, self-discipline, absence of emotionality, these are just a few | qualities of the list that the best candidates for the "prestigious job" should have. The task of a sports analyst, working on sports offer, is to calculate the probability of each outcome in the event / bet. Estimation of an event probability this is the calculation of the chances (in percents) to get specific result by the bookie. We can calculate it based on the bookmaker's margin (assuming that our margin is 11%). |
Step 1 - calculation of the odds percentageto top
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Example: |
Explanations: OP- odds percentage M-margin If you already have the odds percentage you can easily calculate the probability of the specific result (let’s take Barcelona-Real Madrid, for example). |
Step 2 - probability calculationto top
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Barcelona-0,5 x 90,09% = 45,04% (chances that Barcelona will win)
Draw - 0,33 x 90,09% = 29,73% (chances that this match will end in a draw) Real M. - 0,28 x 90,09% = 25,23% (chances that Real Madrid will win) |
The bookmaker estimated the chances of Barcelona to win at the level of 45%, a draw is estimated at 30%, and Real Madrid’s chances at about 25%. |
Step 3 – odds settingto top
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If we have already calculated the odds percentage and the probability index, we can easily set the odds for the match. First, the analyst must calculate the potential number of players who will place bets, which is not an easy task because it requires a substantial knowledge of the market. The odd is calculated with the help of the formula: O= 1/Px O-odds Px - the percentage of probability of the event Px - bookmaker margin out of 100%, in our case margin amounts to 11% |
O = (1/Px) x89% OBarselona = 1 / 0, 5 x 89% = 1.78 ODraw = 1 / 0, 33 x 89% = 2.69 OReal M. = 1 / 0, 28 x 89% = 3.17 In most cases the odds are rounded up. After the "cosmetic" changes we should set odds at the following level: 1.80, 2.70 and 3.20. These odds will appear at online bookmakers or betting shops. |
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