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Predictability of sports disciplines

Many players often put themselves a question: does a sporting discipline in which you can easily predict the match outcome exist? Unfortunately no documentary research has yet been done on

this topic therefore our consideration can have theoretical character backed by many years’ experience in sports betting that is why we want to present several theories of our observations.

Are bets on football a lottery?
Is it possible to predict a hockey match?
Predictability of bets in tennis
Is basketball the most predictable discipline?
Predictability of volleyball, handball and speedwa
Summing up our article

Are bets on football a lottery?to top

Let’s begin with the world’s most popular kind of sport (except USA) – football which is good because of huge interest among players who place bets. From mathematical point of view football at its start loses the battle for the most predictable kind of sport. Why? First of all, taking into consideration the fact that three match outcomes are possible in football: victory, draw, defeat. Such possibilities will give us only 33,3% chance for prediction of the right match result. Moreover football, what we can find out from mass-media, more often becomes the subject of corruption and what come afterwards – fixed matches. The main problem for the ones who make a bets is the choice of a corresponding league and also match terms. What do we mean talking about these definitions?
Firstly, there are leagues in which we can be confident that corruption won’t reach them as a result of strict

laws of football federations. An ideal example is the English Premier League in which the main clubs that bring forward reserve teams when playing matches of lower ranks are severely punished. It seems that the scandal in Series A has changed the attitude to fixed matches for a couple of years. We can confidently claim that more exposed to corruption are football leagues of post-socialist countries – Ukrainian, Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, Georgian and even Russian. Signals about different violations also come from countries of the Balkan Peninsula – Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania.
If you’ve decided to put sports betting on football you should pay attention to match terms. No one is already surprised that last season matches of European leagues called “tours of miracles” where stronger teams often give points to weaker teams which need them more.

Is it possible to predict a hockey match?to top

A hockey is the next kind of sport which has to be paid attention to. Bookmakers’ bets on hockey can boast of increasing popularity among Russian players. Unfortunately for hockey fans we have uncomforting information that chances for prediction of this discipline are even lower than in football. Online bookmakers take this into consideration and that is why odds for hockey matches, even in those with a definite favorite, are higher than football odds, the main aim of what is attraction of players to betting on this kind of sport. Very hard for prediction are two most stronger hockey leagues: NHL and KHL. American-Canadian league brings out surprises every year. Although best players of the world play in this league it is still hard to predict the outcome in a match between the best team and an outsider. The problem of the Continental Hockey League is financial straits. Situation in the Russian league

changes as a kaleidoscope and depends on the activity of hockey clubs sponsor companies. Unfortunately it can be claimed with high plausibility that KHL also is involved in corruption what could have been seen more than once. One of such examples is the ill-fated match where in 15 minutes to the end of the 3 period a team (Khimik Mytishchi) was winning at home with the score 5-1 but managed to lose in regular time with the score 5-6, this near Moscow miracle will stay in the memory of players who decided to put stakes in real time operation mode for long. Other European leagues are better to be presented, in which it is easier to predict the possible result. Here are meant the leagues of Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany and Switzerland. Maybe the reason is that in all these leagues less sums of money are at betting and so the risk of fixed matches is lower unwise in KHL case.

Predictability of bets in tennisto top

Tennis is one of the most entertaining kinds of sports in the world both in men games and in women. It can often be heard what financial rewards the best tennis players receive. This sport as well as any other has enough surprises. And as in prestigious tournaments tennis players as a rule don’t let down, then in less prestigious tournaments such surprises are not a rare performance.

The reasons that have huge influence on the final outcome of the match are:

Psychics of the given player (especially in matches with opponents whom they don’t like);
Type of court surface on which the match is held;
Disposition and condition of the player lately.

Is basketball the most predictable discipline?to top

Most likely part of players do not share my opinion but many years’ experience affirms my belief that the popular basketball is the most predictable kind of sport. We have several strong arguments for this thesis. We’ll start with the mathematical point of view and the big handicap at the very beginning will be that in case of the majority of online bookmakers we have only two possible game outcomes: victory or defeat (there is no draw, the fate of the match is decided in overtime). Odds for basketball always look attractive for fans of this discipline moreover there is a wide range of bet types at this market. A good player knowing all strong and weak sides of some teams or basketball players can predict the match result with high probability.

The next important fact is the way of calculation of points in a match. It should be noticed that unlike football or hockey basketball differs by a huge amount of collected points continuing in such a way that it is less likely for a weaker team to open the score and during the whole match this result is only held what becomes a surprise for everybody. In basketball, especially in European leagues, we can come over surprising results and returns of shares more rarely and the perfectly oriented players can not only divide the team into those which play well at home but also into more offensive and defensive ones what is reflected on bets types under/over of sum of points. Betting on basketball are more predictable than stakes on football or hockey.

Predictability of volleyball, handball and speedway.to top

These kinds of sports were decided to be put into one sack. It is very hard to evaluate which of these disciplines is more or less predictable but the odds for each of them won’t be attractive for the players. Volleyball and handball are team kinds of sports (speedway partly also) and what is connected with it is difficulty of getting information

about factors influencing the condition of the whole team. In case of volleyball and handball instruction for the match or psychological factors are very important. For speedway the decisive factors except players’ condition are technique, motorcycles, and different random events (defects, false start) what complicates the predictability of speedway.

Summing up our articleto top

If our beliefs have at least any sound sense then all the above mentioned should be summed up. Certainly every person has his or her own view on predictability of some sporting disciplines. Some will claim that it is football other – cycle racing, others – basketball. According to our opinion personal preferences of every player have huge importance. It is so in life that the better we know something is it job or hobby the easier we succeed in it. The same situation is with sports betting. If we have profound

knowledge on the topic of any discipline then it is easier to predict the final outcome of the game. With the theory of chances it is possible to understand that it is easier to predict the match result where there are only two possible outcomes of the game and not three. Next factor can be the information about the given event. It is known that in individual kinds of sports information on the topic of the given player is more available than in case of a team kind of sport where many factors influence our success.

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