What to take into consideration while betting on F1

F1 is a multi-milliard industry which brings more than 600 million of spectators in front of TV during each Grand Prix. Nothing strange that sports bets boast of grand popularity and that there is a possibility of playing on high stakes. At market leaders, one my bet up to 10 000 -15 000 USD on a single bet.

 

Where to find advantage over a bookmaker? And what to take into consideration?

Formula 1 betting

Overestimated and undervalued pole positionto top

Average win of drivers which start from Pole Position comes up to around 50%. This knowledge shows us how important is pole position. However, more important is estimating Pole Position on a given track. It has to be remembered that depending on the characteristics of a track percentage of winning is different. In case of Monza chance to win from first pole position is as much as 80%. Configuration of the track in Silverstone is a lot different and easier to overtake a driver and Pole Position is not of such great importance, and a chance of winning from first Pole Position is around 20%. On the main track in UK, according to the statistics, more lucky were drivers which were starting from the second pole position, around 40% of them won. If we bet on winning in particular Grand Prix we have to study thoroughly the percentage chances. “Recreational” players do not concentrate much on this aspect and in my opinion it is of a significant importance.

 

Analysis of historical data is absolutely a primary element of a success!

Weatherto top

One of the biggest factors thanks to which we can gain a lot. Weather in this sport is of tremendous importance. It is worth to analyse historical data and check thoroughly weather forecast for the race. First of all it is worth to concentrate on:
  • how a given team does in different weather conditions (quick reaction and adjustment to weather conditions, risk taking for instance with tyre changing)
  • drivers with not much experience may definitely have more problems while driving in bad weather conditions
  • each driver prefers his own style of driving, for instance some prefer to drive in rain and others when when a race track is heat
  • whether the same weather condition won’t change throughout the race or for instance the rain will come down for a few minutes during the race.

 

Tyresto top

Every fan of Formula 1 knows how important tyres are. Thanks to the properties of Pirelli tyres (better for overtaking) Formula is to be a little more unpredictable, although recent results do not reflect it fully. I’ve never had a chance to drive a formula 1 car and here I’m basing only on the opinions of experts, but apparently Bridge Stone tyres were more predictable, and what comes with it, it was a lot easier to predict the result. We need to focus on few elements: driving style of individual drivers, strategies of teams or the weather impact on the behavior of tyres.

 

Analysis of the trackto top

Every track is different that is why you need to make a decent analysis before betting. One is more twisted, other with long straights.Profiles of curves are very important because better drivers are able to take advantage of them rapidly. We can get considerable information by observing the training or qualifications. Behaviour and how drivers are accustomed to a race track also affects subsequent success or failure.

 

Rumors/information before the raceto top

We have to draw conclusions from each information before the match, but in my opinion, at the turn of few seasons, the rumors did not affect as much the final result, that’s why wrong reaction of players could be used against them. It is worth to follow social media, some info can be very valuable, for instance the one regarding breaking up with a girl. In this sport psyche plays a very important part.

 

Changes in regulations, restrictions and technical innovationto top

To spice up the races and make them even more unpredictable, practically, almost every season there are changes made. For instance return of Pirelli as a tyre supplier, or change of engine size from V-8 with a 2.4 liter for V6 turbo with engine size 1.6. Restrictive fuel limits which affect the strategy of teams and so on… Such changes are also an opportunity for players. Therefore drawing correct conclusions makes advantage over bookmakers and thus increases profits.

 

Strategiesto top

  • After two wins in a row we bet on a different driver
    According to statistics it is very hard to win Grand Prix 3 times in a row, that is why it is better to think about betting on a different one. Additionally, after 2 wins players usually  keep on betting on the same driver, therefore odds for the favourite decrease.
  • The victory of the season
    In my opinion it is better to bet on the “Championship” after a few Grand Prix. I rarely bet at the very beginning because there are too many unknowns. While betting on this type of bet we analyze the chances of max 3-4 drivers. In this sport there are practically no surprises for the whole season.
  • Bets for constructor
    Practically only 2-3 teams have a chance to win. It is worth to pay attention primarily to the experience of second driver, which may be of a key importance in the end. As in the case of a bet on the winner of the season, also here it is better to bet after few Grand Prix matches played.
  • The fastest lap in qualifications does not decide of the best time of the whole race
    Often players take for granted that a driver which had the fastest lap in qualifications will obtain the same result in the whole race - that is a mistake. Statistics do not show correlation which is as high. On average it can be assumed that the same driver gets about 30% of the best times in race qualifications. More often other driver which are considered favourites, but did not obtain best times during qualifications, get the best times. There is pressure on them and they have to drive more aggressively. For instance in the years 2010-2011  it could be seen that when Sebastian Vettel was starting from Pole Position, Mark Webber (driver from the same team) was getting the best time for one lap. Therefore, it is good to look for such dependencies.

Analysis, analysis and one more time analysis…

Our opinionto top

As you can see, a chance to earn money have only players who will fully dedicate themselves to analysis and engage in it in 100%. In a longer run win only those which may find value in odds offered by bookmakers. In Formula 1 we are able to pick such bets which are worth playing and in a longer run bring expected profit. While on the track there might be many unexpected situations such as: accidents, failed pit stop, fault of a car but this has to also be added. Please note that we should not stop or get discouraged after betting few times (20-50 made bets are not enough).

 

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