The most common results in football
Predicting the score
First thing that comes to one’s mind after deciding that he will bet on a particular match is deciding its result. Especially in football it is important to predict the final score of a fixture as most bets revolve around the numbers of goals and the margin that a team wins a match with. It is thus understandable that bettors want to know the statistics for not only a particular team, but for entire competitions and even overall statistics of scored goals in history of football. Despite the opinion that football is a very exciting, full of surprises game, you would be amazed to know what is the most popular outcome in the history of this sport.
The most popular result in football
And the answer is...a draw. What is more, while a 1-1 draw is considered the most popular outcome in football history, the 0-0 draw is the most popular score at the half time of the game. If one had not watched any football match he would think that this is a boring, meaningless sport. But we all know that it is absolutely the opposite, as the discipline is not only the most popular sport on the planet but the most popular form of entertainment overall.
One of the reasons behind this kind of results as the most popular outcome in football matches can be that the gap that used to separate the best teams from the rest is getting smaller and that the overall level of football in the world is getting more even. Nowadays, most teams have similar squad size, financial situation, facilities, coaching staff and overall quality of its players.
The most popular half-time result
As for the half-time goalless draw, it may be that the nervousness of both teams is the crucial factor here. They do not want to make a mistake that will cost them a goal because they know in modern football one goal could be enough to lose. From the other hand, thinking like that, one goal should be also enough to win. It seems that the strategy for most teams is to ‘play it safe’ during the first half and then try to score in the second period. That is also why most goals are scored between 75 and 90 minute, it is the decisive time for both teams.
The reasons behind small number of goals
This ‘play it safe’ strategy could also be applied to the second overall most popular final score which is 1-0. Here, we have a decisive result, but once again the number of goals is not astonishing. Apart from already used arguments of similar level of the teams we can assume that in most top leagues there are less goal situations than in lower leagues.The highest wins we can observe are in games played in either: games between top-division teams and lower league ones, in obscure leagues at the bottom of the football pyramid or in national leagues of countries that are at the bottom of the FIFA ranking. The reason behind this is the tactical awareness and abilities of players from top-divisions. In most games, the strategy of the coach is strictly obeyed and changed only in extreme situations. It is more about the points not number of goals nowadays. Nobody remembers the team that was in the middle of the table, despite scoring a lot of goals, history only remembers the winners. Atletico Madrid team is a great example of this theory.
At the beginning of football history, there were a lot of goals, then with time came the quality and the level of both tactics and styles as well as player abilities became much better, thus resulting in more even games. That is why we do not have as much goals as we used to, but the spectacle is better because most goals that are scored are more beautiful than they used to be at the beginning of football where it was mostly inside-box goals from close range. What is more, in the period between 1900’s and 1950’s, there were often four or more forwards and teams very more offensive. Nowadays we usually see a single attacker and five or six midfielders.
Finally, the reason for smaller number of goals in the most common results in football can be the rules that were invented through the years, for example, the offside rule. What is more, when the use of substitutions was introduced, the number of scored goals decreased. It may be that when a team had few injured or tired players it was more vulnerable to lost a goal. With the help of ‘fresh legs’ on the field, this was not a problem anymore.
The comparison of the results in different leagues
The below statistics show both the most common scores at the the end of the match and at the half-time. The results are based on a study of scores in five most popular European leagues: La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League, Ligue 1 and Serie A. (The number on the left is the home team and the number on the right is the away team).
The most common results in football:
The most common half-time results in football:
Analysis of the statistics
Looking at those statistics one could notice that a draw is very probable scenario both in the middle and at the end of a match.
Based on our study of over ten thousand odds, the average odds for a draw in a match offered by the bookmakers is 56/25 (3.24). With 711/100 (8.11) odds for a 0-0 goalless draw and 25/4 (7.25) for a 1-1 draw.
Betting for the win of one of the teams is more risky and thus it is more profitable. The same thing goes for the number of goals. The higher it gets the more money we can win by betting on it. It is also advisable to bet on during the half time, as the results tend to change during the second half very often. Most matches that are a draw till the half time, end up being a win for one of the teams, while those that are even during the second half time are likely to stay that way till the end. Another interesting observation is that the home team is more likely to win because of its stadium advantage. The support of the fans and the atmosphere should not be underestimated. The exception is when the away team scores a goal before the half-time, then there are higher chances for their win.
Summing up, it is important to know this statistics as it may help you bet on scores that are likely to happen and on teams that have higher chances of scoring. That does not mean though, that other scores are not probable, as it was already mentioned, despite statistics showing otherwise, Football is full of surprises.